Determinants of the Military Robotics Proliferation

Authors

  • Aleš Olejníček Faculty of Military Leadership, University of Defence in Brno, Czech Republic
  • Jakub Odehnal Faculty of Military Leadership, University of Defence in Brno, Czech Republic
  • Vladan Holcner Faculty of Military Leadership, University of Defence in Brno, Czech Republic
  • Miroslav Krč Faculty of Military Leadership, University of Defence in Brno, Czech Republic

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3849/aimt.01218

Keywords:

military robotics, proliferation, security, political, military and economic determinants, cluster analysis, dendrogram

Abstract

The aim of the article is to define and quantify the determinants influencing the proliferation of robotic technology into the armament of the national armies and their use in ombat operations. At the same time, the article focuses on identifying those countries which will deploy and use these advanced military technologies. Based on the literary research and its analysis, four categories of factors have been identified as the ones having influence on the military robotics proliferation. From the results of the classification model, it is clear that 78 analysed countries were classified on the basis of defined determinants into three groups with different assumptions of proliferation of military robotics. Based on the result of the cluster analysis, it is evident that military robotics proliferation was mainly affected by economic determinants in cluster 1, by security and political determinants in cluster 2 and by political and economic determinants in cluster 3.

Author Biographies

  • Aleš Olejníček, Faculty of Military Leadership, University of Defence in Brno, Czech Republic

    Department of Economics

  • Jakub Odehnal, Faculty of Military Leadership, University of Defence in Brno, Czech Republic

    Department of Economics

  • Vladan Holcner, Faculty of Military Leadership, University of Defence in Brno, Czech Republic

    Department of Economics

  • Miroslav Krč, Faculty of Military Leadership, University of Defence in Brno, Czech Republic

    Department of Economics

References

MURPHY A. Military: Robotics Outlook 2025 [on line]. 2017. Loup Ventures. [cited 2017-03-04]. Available from: <http://loupventures.com/military-roboticsoutlook-2025/>.

GATES, B. A Robot in Every Home: The leader of the PC revolution predicts that the next hot field will be robotics. 2007. Scientific American, 2007, vol. 296, no. 1, p. 58-65. ISSN 0036-8733.

Global Trends: Paradox of Progress [on line]. Washington: Office of the Director of National Intelligence. 2017. [cited 2017-03-05]. Available from: <https://www.dni.gov/index.php/global-trends-home>.

MAURER, D. Improvements Needed to Better Control Technology Exports for Cruise Missiles and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (GAO-04-175 [on line]. Washington: U.S. General Accounting Office, 2004, 63 p. [cited 2017-05-07]. Available from: <http://www.gao.gov/assets/250/241243.pdf>.

MELITO, T. Agencies Could Improve Information Sharing and End-Use Monitoring on Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Exports (GAO-12-536) [on line]. Washington: U.S. General Accounting Office, 2012, 58 p. [cited 2016-08-19]. Available from: http://www.gao.gov/assets/600/593131.pdf>.

SINGER, P. W. The Robotics Revolution [on line]. Washington: Brookings, 2012. [cited 2016-08-18]. Available from: <https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-robotics-revolution/>.

BERGER, P.L. and ROTHENBERG, D. Drone wars: transforming conflict, law, and policy. In BERGER, P.L. and ROWLAND, J. (eds). World of Drones: The Global Proliferation of Drone Technology. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015, p. 300-341. ISBN 978-1-107-02556-1.

DAVIS, L.E., McNERNEY, M.J., CHOW, J., HAMILTON, T., HARTING, S. and BYMAN, D. Armed and dangerous?: UAVs and U.S.security. Santa Monika: RAND Corporation, 2014. 34 p. ISBN 978-0-8330-85887.

SAYLER, K. A World of Proliferated Drones: A Technology Primer [online]. Washington: Center for a New America Security, 2015, [cited 2017-02-18]. Available from: <https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/191911/CNAS%20World%20of%20Drones_052115.pdf>.

HOROWITZ, M.C., KREPS, S.E. and FUHRMANN, M. 2016. The Consequences of Drone Proliferation: Separating Fact from Fiction. International Security, vol. 42, no. 2, p. 7-42. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00257.

BERGEN, P. and STERMAN D. Who Has What: Countries Developing Armed Drones [on line]. In Depth World of Drones: World of Drones. Washington D.C.: New America, 2016. [cited 2017-04-22]. Available from: <https://www.newamerica. org/in-depth/world-of-drones/4-who-has-what-countries-developing-armeddrones/>.

SUMMEY, D.C., RODRIGUEZ, R.R. and DEMARTINO, D.P. Shaping the Future of Naval Warfare with Unmanned Systems [on line]. In: Performing Organization Report. Panama City, Florida: Dahlgren Division Naval Surface Warfare Center, 2001. [cited 2017-02-02]. Available from: <https://www.academia.edu/2681124/Shaping_the_Future_of_Naval_Warfare_Witth_Unmanned_Systems>.

SINGER, P.W. Wired for war: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the Twenty-first Century. New York: Penguin Press, 2009. 499 p. ISBN 978-1-59420-198-1.

SZABOLCSI, R. The Birth of the Term Robot. Advances in Military Technology, 2014, vol. 9, no. 1, p. 117-128. ISSN 1802-2308.

SINGER, P.W. Die Zukunft ist schon da: Die Debatte über Drohnen muss von Realitäten ausgehen [on line]. IP-Die Zeitschrift. Berlin: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, 2013. [cited 2017-05-22]. Available from: <https://zeitschriftip.dgap.org/de/ip-die-zeitschrift/archiv/jahrgang-2013/mai-juni/die-zukunft-istschon-da>.

COLE, C. Mapping Drone Proliferation: Big Business vs. the MTCR [on line]. Drone Wars UK. Oxford: Peace House, 2012. [cited 2017-03-04]. Available from: <https://dronewars.net/2012/09/18/mapping-drone-proliferation-big-business-vsthe-mtcr/#GAOlist>.

TOFFLER, A. and TOFFLER, H. War and Antiwar. New York: Warner Books, 1993, 245 p. ISBN 04-466-0259-0.

HALL, A.R. and COYNE, C.J. The Political Economy of Drones [on line]. Defence and Peace Economics. 2014, vol. 25, no. 5, p. 445-460. ISSN 1476-8267. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2013.833369.

GOODELL, J. Inside the Artificial Intelligence Revolution: A Special Report, Pt. 2: Self-Driving Cars, War Outsourced to Robots, Surgery by Autonomous Machines – This is only the Beginning [on line]. Rolling Stone. New York: Wenner Media, 2016. [cited 2017-03-04]. Available from: <http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/inside-the-artificial-intelligence-revolution-aspecial-

report-pt-2-20160309>.

HOROWITZ, M.C. and FUHRMANN, M. Droning On: Explaining the Proliferation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles [on line]. GSPIA, 2014. [cited 2017-07-29]. Available from: <http://www.gspia.pitt.edu/Portals/26/PDF/HF%20Drone%20Proliferation%209%2012%2014%20-%20Pitt.pdf>.

CAVERLEY, J.D. Democratic Militarism: Voting, Wealth, and War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014, 314 p. ISBN 978-1-107-66737-2.

GARTZKE, E. Democracy and the Preparation for War: Does Regime Type Affect States’ Anticipation of Casualties? International Studies Quarterly, 2001, vol. 45, no. 3, p. 467-484.

SCHÖRNIG, N. Liberal Preferences as an Explanation for Technology Choices. The Case of Military Robots as a Solution to the West’s Casualty Aversion. In CARPES, M., MAYER, M. and KNOBLICH, R. (eds) The Global Politics of Science and Technology – Vol. 2: Perspectives, Cases and Methods. 2nd. Bonn: Springer, 2014, p. 67-82. ISBN 978-3-642-55009-6.

BARKAN, N., BLAND, C. and CULVER, W. Robotics and Autonomous Systems 2011 [on line]. In: Industry Study: Final Report, 2011. 46 p. [cited 2017-08-06]. Available from: <http://es.ndu.edu/Portals/75/Documents/industry-study/reports/2011/icaf-is-report-robotics-autonomous-systems-2011.pdf>.

JOHNSON, R.A. and WICHERN, D.W. Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1992, p. 481-538. ISBN 978-0-13-187715-3.

DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS. Cluster Analysis: Ward’s Method [on line]. State College: Eberly College of Science, 2004. [cited 2017-03-04]. Available from: <http://sites.stat.psuedu/~ajw13/stat505/fa06/19_cluster/09_cluster_wards.html>.

MOOI, E. and SARSTEDT, M. Cluster Analysis. In: A Concise Guide to Market Research. Berlin: Heidelberg, 2011. p. 250-254. ISBN 978-3-642-12541-6.

NCSS Statistical Software. Hierarchical Clustering / Dendrograms [on line]. Kaysville: NCSS Statistical Software, 2004. [cited 2017-12-12]. Available from: <https://ncss-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/themes/ncss/pdf/Procedures/NCSS/Hierarchical_Clustering-Dendrograms.pdf>.

FARLEY, R. The Five Most Deadly Drone Powers in the World [on line]. In The National Interest. Washington: National Interest, 2015. [cited 2017-08-06]. Available from: <http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-five-most-deadly-drone-powers-the-world-12255?page=2>.

Downloads

Published

23-05-2018

Issue

Section

Technical Information

Categories

How to Cite

Olejníček, A., Odehnal, J., Holcner, V., & Krč, M. (2018). Determinants of the Military Robotics Proliferation. Advances in Military Technology, 13(1), 71-86. https://doi.org/10.3849/aimt.01218

Similar Articles

61-70 of 204

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.