The Method of Proactive Risk Assessment for Flight Safety Based on the Rate of Dangerous Events

Y. Honcharenko; O. Martyniuk; O. Radko; P. Open’ko

doi:10.3849/aimt.01424

The Method of Proactive Risk Assessment for Flight Safety Based on the Rate of Dangerous Events

Authors

Y. Honcharenko National Defence University of Ukraine named after Ivan Cherniakhovskyi, Kyiv, Ukraine
O. Martyniuk National Defence University of Ukraine named after Ivan Cherniakhovskyi, Kyiv, Ukraine
O. Radko National Aviation University, Kyiv, Ukraine
P. Open’ko National Defence University of Ukraine named after Ivan Cherniakhovskyi, Kyiv, Ukraine

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3849/aimt.01424

Keywords:

correlation and regression analysis, flight safety, safety management system

Abstract

This publication is devoted to the issues of risk assessment in the safety management system of military aviation. The method of proactive assessment of risks to flight safety based on the number of dangerous events, which is based on correlation-regression analysis, provides an opportunity to predict the conditions that contribute to the occurrence of accidents. Studies conducted with this method have confirmed the dependence of the number of aviation accidents and serious incidents on incidents recorded for different groups of reasons, as well as on the intensity of flight activities. The obtained results can provide initial data for quantitative risk assessment in the safety management system of military aviation. The implementation of such an approach is appropriate in safety management systems in the transition phase from active to proactive approaches, until a sufficient information database on hazards is accumulated.

Author Biography

Y. Honcharenko, National Defence University of Ukraine named after Ivan Cherniakhovskyi, Kyiv, Ukraine

lieutenant colonel, PhD student of Aviation Department

References

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Published

01-12-2020

Issue

Vol. 15 No. 2 (2020)

Section

Research Paper

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How to Cite

Honcharenko, Y., Martyniuk, O., Radko, O., & Open’ko, P. (2020). The Method of Proactive Risk Assessment for Flight Safety Based on the Rate of Dangerous Events. Advances in Military Technology, 15(2), 365-377. https://doi.org/10.3849/aimt.01424