The Method of Proactive Risk Assessment for Flight Safety Based on the Rate of Dangerous Events
Keywords:correlation and regression analysis, flight safety, safety management system
This publication is devoted to the issues of risk assessment in the safety management system of military aviation. The method of proactive assessment of risks to flight safety based on the number of dangerous events, which is based on correlation-regression analysis, provides an opportunity to predict the conditions that contribute to the occurrence of accidents. Studies conducted with this method have confirmed the dependence of the number of aviation accidents and serious incidents on incidents recorded for different groups of reasons, as well as on the intensity of flight activities. The obtained results can provide initial data for quantitative risk assessment in the safety management system of military aviation. The implementation of such an approach is appropriate in safety management systems in the transition phase from active to proactive approaches, until a sufficient information database on hazards is accumulated.
Annex 19 to the Convention on International Civil Aviation – Safety Management. 2nd ed. Montreal: International Civil Aviation Organization, 2016.
ZHULEV, V.I. and IVANOV, V.S. Flight Safety of Aircraft (in Russian). Moscow: Transport, 1986. 224 р. ISBN 978-5-45-834929-1.
HONCHARENKO, Y.V. Flight Safety Culture of the State Aviation of Ukraine (in Ukrainian). Science and Defence, 2019, no. 1, p. 36-39. https://doi.org/10.33099/2618-1614-2019-6-1-36-39.
ISO 31000:2018, Risk management – Guidelines.
Doc 9859-AN/474, Safety Management Manual, 3rd ed. Montreal: ICAO, 2013.
Doc 9859-AN/474, Safety Management Manual, 4th ed. Montreal: ICAO, 2017.
MARTYNIUK, O., RADKO, O. and HONCHARENKO, Y. The Risk Assessment in the State Aviation Safety Performance System (in Ukrainian). Modern Information Technologies in the Sphere of Security and Defence, 2019, vol. 34, no. 1, p. 155-160. https://doi.org/10.33099/2311-7249/2019-34-1-155-160Т.
A-GA-135-001/AA-001 Flight Safety for the Canadian Armed Forces [online]. December 2018. [viewed 2020-05-20]. Available from: http://www.rcafarc.forces.gc.ca/en/flight-safety/manuals.page
The Royal Canadian Air Force Highlights Historical Lows of Flight Safety Incidents During the Air Forces Flight Safety Committee (Europe) Meeting [online]. July 2019. [viewed 2020-05-20]. Available from: https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2019/07/the-royal-canadian-air-forcehighlights-historical-lows-of-flight-safety-incidents-during-the-air-forces-flightsafety-committee-europe-meeting.html
Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation – Annex 13 to the Convention on International Civil Aviation, 10th ed. Montreal: ICAO, 2010.
IEC 31010:2019, Risk Management – Risk Assessment Techniques.
MARMOZA, A.T. Theory of Statistics (in Ukrainian). Kyiv: Tsentr Uchbovoi Literatury, 2013. 592 p. ISBN 978-617-673-163-4.
KREMER, N.Sh. Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics (in Russian). 2nd ed. Moscow: UNITI, 2007. 573 p. ISBN 978-5-238-01101-1.
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2020 Advances in Military Technology
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
Users can use, reuse and build upon the material published in the journal for any purpose, even commercially.